Risks involved in Forex

There are two types of currency risk: transaction risk and translation risk. Transaction risk refers to actual conversions of cash flows from one currency to another, and the extent to which exchange rate changes will affect a company's cash flow. Translation risk is more of an accounting issue, and refers primarily to the impact of exchange rates on earnings and balance sheet items when consolidating financial statements from foreign subsidiaries. From a business standpoint, transaction risk is the more relevant of the two.

There are five general types of risk that are faced by all businesses: market risk (unexpected changes in interest rates, exchange rates, stock prices, or commodity prices), credit/default risk; operational risk (equipment failure, fraud); liquidity risk (inability to buy or sell commodities at quoted prices); and political risk (new regulations, expropriation). Businesses operating in the petroleum, natural gas, and electricity industries are particularly susceptible to market risk—or more specifically, price risk—as a consequence of the extreme volatility of energy commodity prices. Electricity prices, in particular, are substantially more volatile than other commodity prices.

Country risk can be divided into two parts, economic risk and political risk. Economic risk refers to the stability of a country's economy. It embodies concerns such as dependence on individual industries or markets, the ability to sustain a vibrant level of activity and to grow, and the supply of natural resources and other important inputs.

Political risk is more concerned with the stability of the government that manages the economy. It encompasses concerns such as the ability to move capital in and out of the country, the likelihood of a smooth transfer of power after elections, and the government's overall attitude toward foreign firms. Obviously, these two branches of country risk overlap significantly. There are a variety of services that provide in-depth assessments of country risk for virtually every country; multinational firms make considerable use of these services to form their own decisions regarding international projects.